Europe at the precipice

Failure of London "peace" talks on Wednesday will ultimately precipitate a financial crash in Europe and Britain, catalyzing an explosion of inflation and an economic depression.

[Originally published in I-System TrendCompass]

The "peace talks,” that were meant to take place in London on Wednesday, 23 April, collapsed as US State Secretary Marco Rubio and Trump's envoy Steve Wytkoff cancelled their attendance. Instead, Wytkoff flew to Moscow for his fourth meeting with Vladimir Putin. This will prove to be a watershed moment for European powers, dashing their last hope that the US will step up and provide an open-ended security guarantee for the Zelensky regime, or another western-aligned government in Kiev. I believe that this will ultimately precipitate a momentous credit market event for Europe, and trigger an irreversible collapse of the European financial markets.

As I detailed in last month's report on Ukraine's rare earths hustle, the American role in Ukraine was essential to safeguard European interests in Ukraine. Those interests were largely economic. On 16 January this year, Sir Keir Starmer flew into Kiev and signed a 100-year partnership with Kiev. In consideration of British support, including with GBP 3 billion a year (for as long as necessary), Zelensky signed over the bulk of Ukraine's resources and infrastructure capital to British interests.

Not a penny can flow…

Britain's loot in Ukraine would serve as fresh collateral to shore up Britain's collateral-starved financial system. For his part, French President Emmanuel Macron dreamed up a scheme about using Russia's frozen assets as collateral for French banks to fund the reconstruction of Ukraine. But as Boris Johnson explained, without the US security guarantee, "not a penny can flow from this investment." Starmer confirmed that "US backstop is vital."

Well, US backstop is now off the table and both Britain and France, the core of Europe's "coalition of the willing," had to back away from their cunning plan of deploying their own tripwire peace-keeping troops to Ukraine. That pretty much cements her defeat against Russia, making it all but inevitable that the terms of peace will be dictated by the Kremlin.

Moscow will dictate the terms of peace

In one way or another, whether through military conquest or administrative control, Moscow will return Ukraine back into its orbit and we can expect that the future government in Kiev will realign with Russia. The role of Western interests will be severely curtailed or they will be kicked out altogether. Whatever deals were signed by Sir Kier and agent Zelensky will be torn up and declared null and void. In the end, not a penny of those "investments" in Ukraine will flow to London or to Paris. Ouch!

A new deal for the US

The United States will be able to recoup some of her investment in Project Ukraine through new deals with Russia, but only on mutually beneficial terms. However, this is a much more attractive alternative for the United States: given Russia's massive resource wealth, the upside will be very considerable, with next to no downside risk. On the other hand, providing a security backstop for the Europeans would entail a massive downside with only a dubious upside potential: the US would have to shoulder the cost of security and risk a military confrontation with a rival nuclear power. The upside was London's "rare earths" three-card monte dangled in front of Trump by their agent Zelensky last fall.

It was extremely optimistic for the Starmer-Johnson cabal to think that they could pull that swindle past Donald Trump, of all people. As Marco Rubio explained, "President Trump isn't going to take that. He's not going to get gamed. He hopes Zelensky isn't trying to hustle the United States, that's not going to be productive here." Of course, everybody and their dogs by now appreciate that Zelensky gets his detailed instructions from London.

The looming credit event

Absent a miracle, Ukraine is headed for total defeat and London and Paris for bankruptcy. At some point, the capital markets will recognize this for what it is and British and European bonds markets will collapse, along with their currencies. For the moment, this is not yet happening, but some unpredictable triggering event will set off an avalanche which will then precipitate an irreversible fall of the degenerated old colonial regimes in Paris and in London.

Alex Krainer – @NakedHedgie is the creator of I-System Trend Following and publisher of daily TrendCompass investor reports which cover over 200 financial and commodities markets. One-month test drive is always free of charge, no jumping through hoops to cancel. To start your trial subscription, drop us an email at TrendCompass@ISystem-TF.com, or:

Check out TrendCompass on Substack where our new Key Markets report, covering 18 key global markets is priced at under $1/day!

To learn more about TrendCompass reports please check our main TrendCompass web page. We encourage you to also have a read through our TrendCompass User Manual page. For US investors, we propose a trend-driven inflation/recession resilient portfolio covering a basket of 30+ financial and commodities markets. Further information is at link.