Is the EU about to begin disintegrating?

Soon, "INTERMARIUM" could become a household term

The default ethos of mainstream commentariat seems to be, we never expect any surprises (except the pandemics, that is). However, we might be up for many surprises in the coming months. One of them could be an accelerated disintegration of the European project.

Rotten to the core

Beyond the glossy facade, the structure of the Union is rotten to the core. It is based on a toxic legal code and managed by a bureaucracy of unaccountable, incompetent and thoroughly corrupt apparatchiks. As such it not only fails to fulfill the aspirations of the peoples of Europe, it is becoming increasingly oppressive in its attempts to command their loyalty and compliance. The result is a rising tide of populism in more and more member nations, some of which are now openly showing that they're fed up with the whole farce and probably readying an exit in the near future.

Western values: migration, LGBT and war?

During the recent "Tusvanyos 2023" festival in Romania, Hungary's President Viktor Orban made a shockingly blunt public statement about this:

"If one is involved in European politics as I am, then today's 'western values' mean three things: migration, LGBT and war. The European Union rejects christian heritage. It is managing population replacement through migration, and it is waging an LGBT offensive against family-friendly European nations.

Just a few days ago we saw the fall of Lithuania which had a really fine, remarkable, great child protection law, which Hungary used as a starting point when constructing ours. And I see that, under great pressure, the Lithuanians have withdrawn and annulled child protection laws that they had adopted in 2012. ... 

Our Constitution however, affirms the place where our children will live as being our homeland. It affirms our identities as being men and women because that's what we call family. It also affirms our borders, because that's how we can say who we want to live with. When in 2011 we created the new Constitution, a Hungarian, national, Christian Constitution, different from other European Constitutions, we did not make a bad decision.

Indeed, let us say that we did not make a bad decision, but rather a good one because since then we have been beset by a migration crisis which clearly cannot be dealt with on a liberal basis. And then we have an LGBT, gender offensive which, it turns out, can only be repelled on the basis of community and child protection. 

Well, we have to say that Europe today has created its own political class which is no longer accountable and no longer has any Christian or democratic convictions. And we have to say that federalist governance in Europe has led to an unaccountable empire. We have no other choice. For all our love of Europe, for all that is ours, we must fight."

Indeed, things have deteriorated beyond repair when child protection laws must be scrapped under political pressures. This is so beyond the pale that even the most silver-tongued of the apologists won't be able to intellectualize their way out of that tar pit. In the United States, parents who dare question the LGBT offensive and stray to try and protect their children are even labelled as a domestic terrorist threat. The Great Resetters did indeed announce that their social engineering agenda includes changing what it means to be human, except they didn't ask any of the rest of us if we agreed.

The barn-door of the Danube basin will soon swing open

But the most interesting aspect of Orban's speech could be as a geopolitical milestone. It was delivered during his visit to Romania and as such it would have been hard for Romanian media to ignore. Hungary is a land-locked nation that could easily be punished with sanctions and blockades - unless its Danube-basin neighbors joined Hungary's pushback against the EU diktat. Of course, Romanian alliance would be of little help if the Danube estuary was under US/NATO control in the Black Sea through their faithful proxy Ukraine. 

Does Orban know something we don’t?

Perhaps Viktor Orban dared make that speech because he knows something that's not yet in the public domain, but is widely expected by many observers: that Russia will 'liberate' Ukraine's port city of Odessa and take full control of Ukraine's Black Sea coast where the Danube could in the future connect central and Eastern Europe to Russia's NSTC (International North-South Transport Corridor) opening trade with Russia, Turkey, Caspian Basin, Iran and India.

Danube River connects Europe's largest basin, connecting many nations of central and Eastern Europe with the Black Sea. This factor alone could enable an avalanche of defections including not only Hungary, but also Czech Republic, Slovakia, Romania, Bulgaria, Slovenia, Croatia, and even Austria.

Mackinder’s Heartland Theory could flip the wrong way for the Emprie

Halford Mackinder, the founder of British Empire geopolitics understood this when he said that, who controls Eastern Europe controls the "heartland," (marked as “PIVOT AREA” in the map below); who controls the "heartland" controls the "world island" (EurAsian landmass) and who controls the world island controls the world.

The full magnitude of the west's loss of Ukraine, a veritable geopolitical tectonic shift, will probably start to become apparent over the coming months and it will only escalate the panic of the hapless western leadership. In April this year, Poland's Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki gave away their anxious mindset when he said that, "If we lose in Ukraine, we will lose the world for decades. Defeat in Ukraine could be the beginning of the end of the Golden Age of the west." By “we,” Morawiecki did not mean your or I. He meant the western political class and the degenerate oligarchy that employs them.

What’s Intermarium, Precious?

Prediction is always a thankless task, but soon, the geopolitical realities could get a very radical makeover. Alternative integrations among nations comprising what could become the “Intermarium” have already begun. The new geopolitical division of Eurasia could emerge looking like this:

For the Western Empire, this is the stuff of nightmares. Recall, in their December 2021 draft treaties presented to the Biden administration and NATO, Russia did set down the demands that NATO withdraw behind their pre-1997 borders. We shouldn’t assume that these were just idle clauses to haggle over.

The markets will sound the alarm!

As new realities dawn and become more discernible to western power centers, the consequences will begin to unfold in currency and bonds markets. As I wrote previously, I expect that the euro will be among the first casualties of these events. Interest rates will skyrocket and wage- and commodity- price inflation will follow, sealing the fate of the dysfunctional old political structures. Despair not, however: instead, prepare!

Alex Krainer – @NakedHedgie is the creator of I-System Trend Following and publisher of daily TrendCompass investor reports which cover over 200 financial and commodities markets. One-month test drive is always free of charge, no jumping through hoops to cancel. To start your trial subscription, drop us an email at TrendCompass@ISystem-TF.com

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