Toward the European spring of 2026?

U.S. National Security Strategy marks a break with America's globalist committments. Yet its regime-change playbook and capabilities remain intact through the NED.

[Originally published at I-System TrendCompass] It is becoming increasingly obvious that the EU has gone rogue and lawless, although it’s hard to say when or how this happened. Recent turns of events have even set the EU and nations like France, Germany and the UK on a collision course with the United States, particularly over their divergent views on Project Ukraine.

Namely, according to the Wall Street Journal, some brilliant European leaders are so unhappy with the U.S. stance that they thought they’d teach the Americans a lesson by liquidating trillions in American government bonds held by European governments.

In the recent report titled, “Self-inflicted FAFO moment for the Eurotards,” I suggested that European leaders “don’t seem to be aware whom they are threatening nor what cards the United States has to play in this conflict.” Something about their threat reminded me of Monty Python’s Fish Slapping dance:

In fact, the United States does have some “big fish” to whip out. In the postwar global order, Europe has complacently made itself so reliant on their ally that today, they are riddled with vulnerabilities. The obvious way for the U.S. to retaliate would be Donald Trump’s favorite: the threat of tariffs. But that’s just the start. Europe’s dependence on the U.S. for dollar liquidity, is another vulnerability, discussed in the 15 May 2025 TrendCompass titled, “Fear of Trump grips the Eurozone.”

U.S. Security Strategy: “Standing up for genuine democracy…”

But there’s more: in the postwar global order, the United States has specialized in regime change operations around the world and has a considerable track record in this regard: since 1946, the U.S. has intervened to overthrow more than 50 governments around the world (the CIA even acknowledged instigating seven of them). Our question for today is, could they turn their regime-change skills against nations like Germany, Great Britain, or the European Union?

This may seem unlikely, but who knows - if we read the Trump administration’s recently published National Security Strategy (NSS25), we can find some interesting tidbits. Taking note of Europe’s economic decline, NSS25 underscores that it “is eclipsed by the real and more stark prospect of civilizational erasure. The larger issues facing Europe include activities of the European Union and other transnational bodies that undermine political liberty and sovereignty. The document further lays out U.S. stance on European issues in the following terms:

We want Europe to remain European, to regain its civilizational self-confidence, and to abandon its failed focus on regulatory suffocation. … Managing European relations with Russia will require significant U.S. diplomatic engagement …

The Trump Administration finds itself at odds with European officials who hold unrealistic expectations for the war perched in unstable minority governments, many of which trample on basic principles of democracy to suppress opposition. … This is strategically important to the United States precisely because European states cannot reform themselves if they are trapped in political crisis. …

American diplomacy should continue to stand up for genuine democracy, freedom of expression, and unapologetic celebrations of European nations’ individual character and history. America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit, and the growing influence of patriotic European parties indeed gives cause for great optimism. Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory. …

We want to work with aligned countries that want to restore their former greatness. Our broad policy for Europe should prioritize: … Enabling Europe to stand on its own feet and operate as a group of aligned sovereign nations; … Cultivating resistance to Europe’s current trajectory…

NSS25 may not have openly declared diplomatic war against the EU, but it might as well have: it positively asserts the “Primacy of Nations,” spelling out that “the world’s fundamental political unit is and will remain the nation-state,” and that, “The United States will put our own interests first and, in our relations with other nations, encourage them to prioritize their own interests as well.” The document further declares that:

“We stand for the sovereign rights of nations, against the sovereignty-sapping incursions of the most intrusive transnational organizations, and for reforming those institutions so that they assist rather than hinder individual sovereignty and further American interests.”

The above paragraphs spell out an unambiguously hostile stance against the EU, as well as the U.S. intention to stand up “for genuine democracy,” and encouraging U.S. political allies in Europe to promote their sovereigntist “revival of spirit.”

The spectre of color revolutions

We can imagine however, that standing up for genuine democracy might resemble the 2011 Arab spring, 2003 Rose Revolution in Georgia, 2004 Orange Revolution in Ukraine or the 2014 Euromaidan coup. All these “revolutions” started with mass protests and since last summer, we’ve been witnessing many mass protests across Europe, including in Spain, France, Belgium, Finland, Lithuania, Bulgaria, Greece and Germany.

It may be that these were all spontaneous demonstrations against this or that government policy (farming policies, immigration, militarization, conscriptions, etc.), but it may also be that Europeans are being emboldened to protest through subtle NGO actions. After all, what is the meaning of “America encourages its political allies in Europe to promote this revival of spirit, and … Our goal should be to help Europe correct its current trajectory.”

In the past, the United States has resorted to regime change operations to facilitate globalist agendas and the U.S. government certainly has the requisite assets and capabilities to continue with regime change operations: while Trump dismembered USAID, one of the agencies involved in such operations, the other one, National Endowment for Democracy (NED) is still operational.

It should be safe to assume that the NED still has access to its massive network of NGOs and “private-public partnerships” that permeate European political space. It’s plausible that these networks could now be put to work toward the new U.S. National Security Strategy. It will be interesting to watch how the European political space evolves over the coming months. We shouldn’t be surprised if we witness a veritable “European spring” this year.

Alex Krainer – @NakedHedgie is the creator of I-System Trend Following and publisher of daily TrendCompass investor reports which cover over 200 financial and commodities markets. One-month test drive is always free of charge, no jumping through hoops to cancel. To start your trial subscription, drop us an email at TrendCompass@ISystem-TF.com, or:

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