Btw, I Just watch an interview of Bill OReilly on JudgeNap’s channel. Wanted to turn it off after 3 min but turned out to be kind of entertaining video. I can’t believe that I used to watch that ignorant moron!
I don't get it. Under Bush, with a stronger dollar, a barrel of oil was above $100, $150 in 2024 dollars.
Why is it such a big deal now, why the fear? Obviously, they'll never admit that real estate is the real bubble, having climbed many times inflation for decades.
That's the one thing I have yet to see any capitalist economist consider.... That we have already gone through horrible inflation, thanks to cheap (gambling)money that flooded markets, including real estate, which was always thought to be a solid bet, but turned into a ridiculously insane bubble.
Who would benefit from a closed Suez? Who would be harmed? Obviously shipping would be altered. Containerships are oversupplied and affected less.. Crude carriers adequately supplied, but very affected. Clean tankers as well. LNG tankers are in deficit, and Gulf to EU voyages more than double around the Cape. Who loses? EU energy markets - again.
The real economic victim of all the chaos the last 2 years is continental Europe.
Many with today's sensibilities misunderstand Bohr's statement, specifically the 'especially about the future' part. They think 'Of course prediction is about the future, moron!'
But Bohr was a quantum mechanical physicist. Quantum mechanics is all about creating mathematical models that describe some physical phenomenon, typically occurring at a sub-atomic scale. These models often have no apparent relationship to what they attempt to describe, but if they give results that agree with known observations, then they are interesting to the physicist.
The true test of such a model is, given that it is based on a series of observations of known science, can it predict something that has not yet been observed, and can it do so correctly?
That is the Holy Grail of quantum physics, and it is a difficult challenge indeed. So what Bohr said was essentially that coming up with a model that agrees with known data is fairly hard. Finding a model that can predict future things that have not yet been observed is exceptionally hard.
Which should raise a big red warning flag about all the 'climate models,' into which you can plug all the data from say 1900 to 1980, and ask them to predict the interval 1980-2000. Despite the fact that the models are supposedly based on the known data (up til very recently), they almost universally fail in this challenge. That is, they fail Bohr's initial challenge: they cannot even predict (match) known data. How can they have any utility in predicting the future?
Thanks for sharing your insight on this.
Thank you. It's uncertainty, basically..
Great article Alex.
Btw, I Just watch an interview of Bill OReilly on JudgeNap’s channel. Wanted to turn it off after 3 min but turned out to be kind of entertaining video. I can’t believe that I used to watch that ignorant moron!
Yes, I watch Judge Napolitano regularly but I wasn't able to bring myself to hearing O'Reilly, so I skipped that one! =)
Thank you, Alex!
Unless they have changed their minds, the Houthis said they were going to leave petroleum tankers alone.
I don't get it. Under Bush, with a stronger dollar, a barrel of oil was above $100, $150 in 2024 dollars.
Why is it such a big deal now, why the fear? Obviously, they'll never admit that real estate is the real bubble, having climbed many times inflation for decades.
That's the one thing I have yet to see any capitalist economist consider.... That we have already gone through horrible inflation, thanks to cheap (gambling)money that flooded markets, including real estate, which was always thought to be a solid bet, but turned into a ridiculously insane bubble.
Who would benefit from a closed Suez? Who would be harmed? Obviously shipping would be altered. Containerships are oversupplied and affected less.. Crude carriers adequately supplied, but very affected. Clean tankers as well. LNG tankers are in deficit, and Gulf to EU voyages more than double around the Cape. Who loses? EU energy markets - again.
The real economic victim of all the chaos the last 2 years is continental Europe.
I am long LNG shipping.
Many with today's sensibilities misunderstand Bohr's statement, specifically the 'especially about the future' part. They think 'Of course prediction is about the future, moron!'
But Bohr was a quantum mechanical physicist. Quantum mechanics is all about creating mathematical models that describe some physical phenomenon, typically occurring at a sub-atomic scale. These models often have no apparent relationship to what they attempt to describe, but if they give results that agree with known observations, then they are interesting to the physicist.
The true test of such a model is, given that it is based on a series of observations of known science, can it predict something that has not yet been observed, and can it do so correctly?
That is the Holy Grail of quantum physics, and it is a difficult challenge indeed. So what Bohr said was essentially that coming up with a model that agrees with known data is fairly hard. Finding a model that can predict future things that have not yet been observed is exceptionally hard.
Which should raise a big red warning flag about all the 'climate models,' into which you can plug all the data from say 1900 to 1980, and ask them to predict the interval 1980-2000. Despite the fact that the models are supposedly based on the known data (up til very recently), they almost universally fail in this challenge. That is, they fail Bohr's initial challenge: they cannot even predict (match) known data. How can they have any utility in predicting the future?
Neil Bohr had it correct. People have a difficult time with the future.
Good thought experiment in any conversation to observe where the imagination rules the waves in the future tense.
Glad I bought my 6 months fuel now.
The Hegemon keeps escalating the violence without pause by talking about seizing the 300$ billion of Russian Assets .
Has anyone noticed a lull in the Wests escalation of violence.?
I think Ukraine might be in winter hibernation licking their wounds from getting their arses pummeled by Russian artillery.
The price of oil in the USA will plummet was President Trump is back in the White House.
Drill, baby drill!
There’s more “Liquid Gold” under US soil than anywhere else.
Actually, oil is just as abundant as water, only much deeper.
The Tucker Carlson Encounter: The Truth About Fossil Fuels with Dr. Willie Soon
https://tuckercarlson.com/the-tucker-carlson-encounter-fossil-fuels/
Origin of the Oil as Fossil Fuel Hoax:
THE ORIGINS OF OIL: THE FOSSIL FUEL HOAX – BY COLONEL L. FLETCHER PROUTY
(https://republicbroadcasting.org/news/the-origins-of-oil-the-fossil-fuel-hoax-colonel-l-fletcher-prouty/)
http://thebridgelifeinthemix.info/history/oil-fossil-fuel-fake-science/