The collapse of West's strategy of chaos

Recent clash between India and Pakistan turned out catastrophic for the Western empire, which is why it quickly vanished from the media.

[Originally published in I-System TrendCompass] Of all the military/geostrategic analysts I follow, the name that stands out is the Croatian Admiral Davorin Domazet. Domazet is well connected among active military circles in NATO and other nations, including Russia. He is also remarkably well informed about military technology and operations in key war theaters around the world.

In March 2023 I published an article based on an interview Domazet gave at the time, explaining the strategic significance of Russia’s hypersonic weapons. To this day, it has remained the most widely read article I ever published:

Why hypersonic weapons change everything

Having participated in the 1990s wars in the Balkans at the highest levels of command, Domazet has long recognized the actual fault lines in the ongoing global clash between two systems of governance, well before most other analysts began to catch on. In his book, “The Masters of Chaos,” published in 2005 (20 years ago!) he predicted, among other things, that the great crescendo in this conflict would occur in 2025, which now seems spot on! Unfortunately, the book was only published in Croatian language, and is not available for sale from any bookstore I contacted (and neither are any other of his 20+ books).

Admiral Davorin Domazet

Significance of the India-Pakistan clash

In his most recent interview, recorded on 26 June, Domazet spoke about the recent clash between India and Pakistan. The hostilities, which quickly vanished from the pages and airwaves of Western media outlets, were extremely significant, with far-reaching strategic repercussions. I covered the event in my TrendCompass report on 8 May this year:

On 22 April, a terrorist attack took place in Pahalagam, in India's territory of Jammu and Kashmir. The attack was attributed to Pakistani Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and its military. It left 25 Indian tourists and one Nepali individual dead. The attack provoked outrage in India and vows of retribution, which finally happened during the night of 6 May as India launched an air attack against Pakistan.

At the time, relatively little was known about the details of the incident. The greater concern was that it threatened an uncontrolled escalation that could trigger a massive conflict between the two nuclear powers.

The catastrophic failure of Western weapons

Thankfully, the conflict did not escalate: it died down after only two days of kinetic action. What happened? Domazet provides an important bit of context: over the recent years, India started buying some of their key weapons systems from Western arms manufacturers. One of the most important procurement contracts was India’s $9 billion purchase of 36 Rafale aircraft from France: a staggering $250 million per fighter jet. The strategic objective of that extraordinary splurge was to give India air superiority over Pakistan. It turned out to be a very costly mistake for India.

Now we know.

Pakistan opted for Chinese made weapons systems, including the J-10C fighter jets, which cost about a fifth of French Ravales ($46-$58 million). The J-10Cs can carry 9 missiles and are equipped with a powerful radar that can simultaneously lock on 16 different targets. Pakistani military also relies on Chinese satellites so when India mounted their air attack, Pakistan’s defensive response was almost immediate. India launched six aircraft, at least four of which were the fancy French Rafale fighter jets. The Pakistani Air Force scrambled a Chinese J-10C (I wasn’t able to ascertain whether they scrambled only one jet or more).

The J-10C, equipped with six Chinese air-to-air PL-15 missiles, identified India’s aircraft from a distance of 200 km. The PL-15s were launched from a distance of 150 km and all six Indian jets were shot down. Pakistan sustained no loss in the encounter. The event caused shock and consternation in India’s and Western military circles. The following day, India attempted an attack using drones. India procured its drones from Israel; Pakistan again used Chinese drones which proved superior and that attack also failed.

This is why that war died as quickly as it did. But beyond just India’s air attacks failing, the episode was a spectacular showdown between Western and Chinese weapons systems. Rather than showcasing the superiority of Western made weapons, it did exactly the opposite, which had extremely important strategic ramifications.

The strategic significance of Pakistan

Pakistan is a majority Muslim country, it has between 180 and 200 nuclear warheads and long-range missiles to deliver them. It also ranks as the 13th most powerful military in the world. Most importantly perhaps, Pakistan supports Iran which is the key anchor of China’s Belt and Road project. In order for the Western empire to defeat Iran and install a friendly regime in Tehran, it was imperative to contain Pakistan. This was the ultimate objective of India’s attack.

Had India shown military superiority over Pakistan, the intent was to neutralize Pakistan’s influence in the region and inhibit more active support for Iran. It did just the opposite. All this makes Pakistan a major target for elimination in order for the Western Empire to secure its hegemony over the Eurasian continent, and for that reason, the West won’t give up on its goal of declawing Pakistan.

To achieve it, the West will act through two main proxies, Israel and India. The sales pitch will again be a version of the tried and tested “Saddam has weapons of mass destruction.” Already in 2011, Benjamin Netanyahu made the following statement:

"... the greatest mission that we have is to prevent a militant Islamic regime from meeting up with nuclear weapons or from nuclear weapons meeting up with a militant Islamic regime. The first is called Iran. The second is called Pakistan. Because if these radical regimes have nuclear weapons, they will not obey the rules that have been obeyed in the last, almost seven decades." [link, the statement is at 1:13 mark]

It appears that Israel is again actively preparing for war against Pakistan. In that, it can count on strong support from Zionist and Indian lobbies in Washington DC. The jingoism is already doing the rounds on popular media programs. For starters, Pakistan is being framed as a state sponsor of terrorism, the theme Western think tanks have been promoting for years.

The fear of an Islamic nation possessing a nuclear bomb is an old thing: it is why Israel attacked Egypt in the 1960s and Iraq in 1981. In 2018, Israel confessed to bombing Syria's nuclear facility in 2007, and today it is Pakistan's nuclear program that's in Israel's crosshairs again. Yes, again: already in 1981 Israel developed the plan to strike Pakistan's nuclear program. In this plan, India was supporting Israel by providing air bases where Israeli F16s and F15s could land and refuel before the strikes.

The Indians named the plan "Operation Shakti" and Israeli pilots already began training for it. However, Pakistan's ISI found out about this and the country's then ruler Zia ul-Haq reacted immediately. He delivered a blunt message to Israel, saying that if they strike at Pakistan's nuclear facilities, Pakistan would strike Dimona. Ul-Haq also threatened India. Facing a wider war against Pakistan, India backed off. Without India's help, there was no way Israel could carry out the attack, so they backed off too.

Another attack was being prepared in 1998. At that time, the Pakistani government received an intelligence report that found that India and Israel were planning to carry out a joint attack against the country's nuclear facilities. ​Shamshad Ahmad (former Pakistani Foreign Secretary) explained the intelligence report they received:

"Sir, we have just received intelligence report that at an Indian airport, squadrons of Indian and Israeli air forces are positioned and are preparing for an attack on Pakistan's nuclear installations in Balochistan. Then I called our Ambassador in New York, Ahmed Kamal. I told him, go... on CNN and say that Pakistan has information that India and Israel are about to launch a joint attack on Pakistan. The Ambassador went live on CNN and it resulted in a good impact because if India and Israel had made such a plan, it would be called off by morning.”

India has continued actively seeking to destabilize and weaken Pakistan by supporting terrorist groups and separatist movements in its Balochistan region. As Israel’s most important non-Western ally, India has relied on a very close collaboration with Israeli intelligence to direct action against Pakistan. Particularly today, after its recent humiliation by the Pakistani Air Force, India is anxious to support the next Israeli attack against Pakistan. Predictably, Pakistan is the new, new existential threat to Israel.

We’re already failing on six fronts, why not add the seventh?

Pakistani journalist Hamid Mir explained what brought this to world’s attention: "Interestingly, the 12-days' war [between Israel and Iran] exposed the plans of a new war: Israel and India against Pakistan. Now, the threat of a new war is hanging over South Asia. This threat is not just a flight of imagination." Indeed, any threat the Israelis deem as existential is seen as a legitimate justification for a "preemptive" attack against whomever they wish to attack. However…

Fantasies and wishful thinking

Once more, let’s recall that we’re not observing a chain of unrelated conflicts: all these wars are only different battlegrounds in the same clash between opposed systems of governance: the Western imperial system against all who refuse to submit to it. In this sense, the war in Ukraine, Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, Afghanistan and Pakistan are all related. They are related in another way: Western empire is also losing in all of them. Perhaps the most important war is that between Russia and Western proxy Ukraine, where the comprehensive defeat of the West is imminent.

Israel, West’s proxy in the Middle East has also been strategically defeated with the failure of their air defence systems during the 12-day war. Western powers also failed to contain Yemen’s Ansarullah and to effect a regime change in Iran. Their odds of defeating Pakistan are mostly born of desperation, fantasies and wishful thinking, and thanks to the showdown of Western and Chinese weapons technologies, we now have a better appreciation for how the West’s war on China - their ultimate target - might go. It all seems rather hopeless.

They: seeking nuclear war and chaos

According to Admiral Domazet, if they are continuing with escalations and serial arson attacks against peace across the Eurasian continent, it is because they are trying to start a nuclear conflict somewhere in the world as the last hope of preserving their power and their system of governance. Someone will ask, “who is they,” Alex?

It is the occult oligarchy that runs the Western Empire, headquartered at the City of London. The oligarchy’s constraint, however, is that they can’t be seen as the instigators of a first-strike nuclear attack. Instead, their game is to provoke another power into using nukes. Then they can emerge from their shadows as peacemakers (and creditors of the subsequent reconstruction). Preferably, the nukes should be fired by Russia, Iran or Pakistan.

Failing that, Israel will do. Israel probably wouldn’t survive such a sinister misadventure, but as far as the occult oligarchy running the Empire is concerned, Israel is expendable. This is nothing personal: they’ll happily sacrifice Israel and millions of Jews for even a thin hope of preserving their Empire.

The real problem, however, is that their opponents - the other systems of governance emerging under Chinese, Russian and Iranian leadership - are well aware of the stakes and of the oligarchy’s playbook. They won’t easily fall into provocations, making this period of history very probably the beginning of the end of the Western Empire. The seat of power will move to the East, where it had been for some 3,000 years before the advent of Western colonialism.

Alex Krainer – @NakedHedgie is the creator of I-System Trend Following and publisher of daily TrendCompass reports which cover over 200 financial and commodities markets. One-month test drive is always free of charge. To learn more about TrendCompass reports please check our main TrendCompass web page. To start your trial subscription, drop us an email at TrendCompass@ISystem-TF.com, or:

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